A Trickle of Hormuz Traffic Diverts Through a Narrow Iranian Waterway

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HORMUZ SCENARIO AI
(TME) A trickle of vessel traffic is percolating through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly tanker voyages linked to Iran and outbound transits of vessels linked to India. Some of the traffic fits an unusual pattern: in broad daylight and broadcasting AIS, some outbound vessels are taking a route between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, well outside of the traffic lanes and well within Iranian waters.
The location of the route appears to demonstrate a high degree of Iranian control over these specific transits. Qeshm’s southern shore is home to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base, which was filled with small attack boats before the start of U.S.-Iranian hostilities. The new route passes in front of this base before passing through the narrow choke point between Qeshm and Larak, just five nautical miles wide at its narrowest point. At this distance, ships would have minutes at most to prepare for an incoming Iranian attack or boarding attempt.
If Iran wished to close this narrow gateway, it would be even easier to carry out than closing the rest of the strait, which is four times as wide and only half-surrounded by Iranian coastline. Since the IRGC has allowed select vessels through such a vulnerable choke point, its stated “smart control” policy of picking and choosing vessels for transit may well be in effect.
*Culled from The Maritime Executive

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